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Variable selection for heavy-duty vehicle battery failure prognostics using random survival forests

Prognostics and health management is a useful tool for more flexible maintenance planning and increased system reliability. The application in this study is lead-acid battery failure prognosis for heavy-duty trucks which is important to avoid unplanned stops by the road. There are large amounts of data available, logged from trucks in operation. However, data is not closely related to battery health which makes battery prognostic challenging. When developing a data-driven prognostics model and the number of available variables is large, variable selection is an important task, since including non-informative variables in the model have a negative impact on prognosis performance. Two features of the dataset has been identified, 1) few informative variables, and 2) highly correlated variables in the dataset. The main contribution is a novel method for identifying important variables, taking these two properties into account, using Random Survival Forests to estimate prognostics models. The result of the proposed method is compared to existing variable selection methods, and applied to a real-world automotive dataset. Prognostic models with all and reduced set of variables are generated and differences between the model predictions are discussed, and favorable properties of the proposed approach are highlighted.

Sergii Voronov, Daniel Jung and Erik Frisk


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